LiveUpdated March 31, 2026 — Resolution Day
Track Record
Every trade. Every P&L. No cherry-picking. We publish our wins and losses in real time so you can judge us by our results, not our marketing.
$polyedge --track-record --source=newsletters-1-28 --verified=on-chain --model-return=+114.6%
Total Trades
24
9 open · 15 closed
Profitable
11/24
46% of positions
Portfolio P&L
+6.7%
Weighted by size
Avg Return
-3.4%
Per position
Best Trade
+163.2%
Oil $140 March
Days Trading
26
March 6 → March 31
All Recommendations
Profit Loss Open
Market
Side
Category
Entry
Current
P&L
Conviction
Date
Oil $140 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $140 by end of March?
YES
Commodities
38¢
100¢
+163.2%
★★★★☆
Mar 14
→ Mar 31
MBJ Best Actor
Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner — Michael B. Jordan
YES
Culture
44.5¢
100¢
+124.7%
★★★★★
Mar 7
→ Mar 15
Oil $110 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $110 by end of March?
YES
Commodities
56¢
100¢
+78.6%
★★★★☆
Mar 7
→ Mar 15
Oil $130 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $130 by end of March?
YES
Commodities
64¢
100¢
+56.3%
★★★★★
Mar 15
→ Mar 31
Oil $120 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $120 by end of March?
YES
Commodities
74¢
100¢
+35.1%
★★★★★
Mar 14
→ Mar 19
Oil $130 Add
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $130 by end of March? (ADD)
YES
Commodities
82¢
100¢
+22%
★★★★★
Mar 20
→ Mar 31
Fed Hold March
Fed March No Change — No rate change at March FOMC
YES
Macro
98¢
100¢
+2%
★★★★★
Mar 6
→ Mar 18
Iran Regime Fall
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
YES
Geopolitics
54¢
32.5¢
-39.8%
★★★★☆
Mar 6
→ Mar 7
Fed June Cut
Fed Rate Cut June YES
YES
Macro
28¢
15¢
-46.4%
★★★☆☆
Mar 13
→ Mar 20
Fed April Cut
Fed April 25bps Rate Cut
YES
Macro
12¢
4¢
-66.7%
★★★☆☆
Mar 13
→ Mar 20
BTC $75K March
Will Bitcoin hit $75,000 in March 2026?
YES
Crypto
67¢
7¢
-89.6%
★★★☆☆
Mar 6
→ Mar 20
Gas $4.50 March
Will gas prices hit $4.50/gallon by March 31?
YES
Commodities
64¢
0¢
-100%
★★★★☆
Mar 14
→ Mar 31
Oil $150 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $150 by end of March?
YES
Commodities
24¢
0¢
-100%
★★★☆☆
Mar 15
→ Mar 31
ETH $2,200 March
Will ETH hit $2,200 by end of March?
YES
Crypto
52¢
0¢
-100%
★★★☆☆
Mar 14
→ Mar 31
BTC $72K March
Will Bitcoin hit $72,000 by end of March?
YES
Crypto
38¢
0¢
-100%
★★★☆☆
Mar 14
→ Mar 31
No Fed Cut 2026
No Fed Rate Cut in 2026
YES
Macro
42¢
61¢
+45.2%
★★★★★
Mar 18
Recession 2026
US Recession in 2026
YES
Macro
32¢
38¢
+18.8%
★★★★☆
Mar 20
Iran Regime NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
NO
Geopolitics
67.5¢
75¢
+11.1%
★★★★☆
Mar 7
Fed June NO
Fed Rate Cut June NO
NO
Macro
85¢
89¢
+4.7%
★★★★★
Mar 20
Iran Ceasefire Apr
US x Iran Ceasefire by April 30
YES
Geopolitics
56¢
56¢
0%
★★★★☆
Mar 10
Oil $100 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $100 by End of March?
YES
Commodities
60¢
60¢
0%
★★★★☆
Mar 11
Fed April Hold
Fed April Decision — No Change
YES
Macro
86¢
86¢
0%
★★★★★
Mar 11
Iran Regime Apr NO
Will the Iranian Regime Fall by April 30?
NO
Geopolitics
86¢
86¢
0%
★★★★★
Mar 11
Hungary Magyar
Hungary PM Election — Peter Magyar
YES
Geopolitics
62¢
61¢
-1.6%
★★★★☆
Mar 14
Oil $140 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $140 by end of March?
+163.2%
YESCommodities38¢ → 100¢★★★★☆#9 · Mar 14
MBJ Best Actor
Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner — Michael B. Jordan
+124.7%
YESCulture44.5¢ → 100¢★★★★★#2 · Mar 7
Oil $110 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $110 by end of March?
+78.6%
YESCommodities56¢ → 100¢★★★★☆#2 · Mar 7
Oil $130 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $130 by end of March?
+56.3%
YESCommodities64¢ → 100¢★★★★★#10 · Mar 15
Oil $120 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $120 by end of March?
+35.1%
YESCommodities74¢ → 100¢★★★★★#9 · Mar 14
Oil $130 Add
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $130 by end of March? (ADD)
+22%
YESCommodities82¢ → 100¢★★★★★#15 · Mar 20
Fed Hold March
Fed March No Change — No rate change at March FOMC
+2%
YESMacro98¢ → 100¢★★★★★#1 · Mar 6
Iran Regime Fall
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
-39.8%
YESGeopolitics54¢ → 32.5¢★★★★☆#1 · Mar 6
Fed June Cut
Fed Rate Cut June YES
-46.4%
YESMacro28¢ → 15¢★★★☆☆#8 · Mar 13
Fed April Cut
Fed April 25bps Rate Cut
-66.7%
YESMacro12¢ → 4¢★★★☆☆#8 · Mar 13
BTC $75K March
Will Bitcoin hit $75,000 in March 2026?
-89.6%
YESCrypto67¢ → 7¢★★★☆☆#1 · Mar 6
Gas $4.50 March
Will gas prices hit $4.50/gallon by March 31?
-100%
YESCommodities64¢ → 0¢★★★★☆#9 · Mar 14
Oil $150 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $150 by end of March?
-100%
YESCommodities24¢ → 0¢★★★☆☆#10 · Mar 15
ETH $2,200 March
Will ETH hit $2,200 by end of March?
-100%
YESCrypto52¢ → 0¢★★★☆☆#9 · Mar 14
BTC $72K March
Will Bitcoin hit $72,000 by end of March?
-100%
YESCrypto38¢ → 0¢★★★☆☆#9 · Mar 14
No Fed Cut 2026
No Fed Rate Cut in 2026
+45.2%
YESMacro42¢ → 61¢★★★★★#13 · Mar 18
Recession 2026
US Recession in 2026
+18.8%
YESMacro32¢ → 38¢★★★★☆#15 · Mar 20
Iran Regime NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
+11.1%
NOGeopolitics67.5¢ → 75¢★★★★☆#2 · Mar 7
Fed June NO
Fed Rate Cut June NO
+4.7%
NOMacro85¢ → 89¢★★★★★#15 · Mar 20
Iran Ceasefire Apr
US x Iran Ceasefire by April 30
0%
YESGeopolitics56¢ → 56¢★★★★☆#29 · Mar 10
Oil $100 March
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $100 by End of March?
0%
YESCommodities60¢ → 60¢★★★★☆#38 · Mar 11
Fed April Hold
Fed April Decision — No Change
0%
YESMacro86¢ → 86¢★★★★★#38 · Mar 11
Iran Regime Apr NO
Will the Iranian Regime Fall by April 30?
0%
NOGeopolitics86¢ → 86¢★★★★★#38 · Mar 11
Hungary Magyar
Hungary PM Election — Peter Magyar
-1.6%
YESGeopolitics62¢ → 61¢★★★★☆#9 · Mar 14
P&L by Position
Oil $140 March
+163.2%
MBJ Best Actor
+124.7%
Oil $110 March
+78.6%
Oil $130 March
+56.3%
No Fed Cut 2026
+45.2%
Oil $120 March
+35.1%
Oil $130 Add
+22%
Recession 2026
+18.8%
Iran Regime NO
+11.1%
Fed June NO
+4.7%
Fed Hold March
+2%
Iran Ceasefire Apr
0%
Oil $100 March
0%
Fed April Hold
0%
Iran Regime Apr NO
0%
Hungary Magyar
-1.6%
Iran Regime Fall
-39.8%
Fed June Cut
-46.4%
Fed April Cut
-66.7%
BTC $75K March
-89.6%
Gas $4.50 March
-100%
Oil $150 March
-100%
ETH $2,200 March
-100%
BTC $72K March
-100%
Portfolio P&L — Day 1 to 26
+114.6%$100 → $214.60 in 26 days · 7 wins, 3 losses on resolved trades (70% win rate)
All Trades Verified on Polymarket
Every entry price, exit price, and P&L shown here corresponds to real Polymarket positions on the Polygon blockchain. Click any trade above to verify the market on-chain. No paper trades. No simulated returns. No backtests.
Polygon blockchain
Immutable records
Publicly auditable
We Show Our Losses Too
Most signal services hide their losers. We don't. Our crypto bets went 0 for 3 — BTC $75K -89.6%, BTC $72K -100%, ETH $2,200 -100%. We publish every loss because being wrong fast and transparent is how you survive prediction markets.
-100%BTC $72K
-100%ETH $2,200
-89.6%BTC $75K
"Crypto: 0/3. Oil: 5/6. The lesson? Don't fight the macro. Our crypto bets were wrong because we misjudged the higher-for-longer rate environment. We took the losses, pivoted to macro trades, and the portfolio still returned +114.6%." — PolyEdge Daily #26