Live Positions
UpdatingWe eat our own cooking. Every position below is traded with real money in our Polymarket wallet. Full transparency — no paper trading, no hindsight bias.
Friday, August 28, 2026
Trading Wallet — Setup In Progress
Our dedicated Polymarket trading wallet is being configured. The 5 trades below have been identified and will be executed once the wallet is funded. Positions will transition from Queued to Live with real entry timestamps and on-chain proof.
Active Positions (8)
Iran Regime Fall Apr 30 — NO
Thesis: Strict resolution criteria + no historical precedent for airstrikes causing regime fall. IRGC intact, succession proceeding. Fair value 92-95%.
Fed April Decision — No Change
Thesis: Warsh's first FOMC meeting. Oil at $123. CPI at 2.9%. No incoming Fed Chair has ever cut at their inaugural meeting. Fair value 93-96%.
Fed March No Change
Thesis: Near free money. Fed won't cut into geopolitical crisis spiking oil 35% in a week. CME FedWatch, Polymarket, and every bank agrees: rates stay put March 18. At 98¢ NO, max upside is 2¢/share but essentially risk-free yield on large position.
US x Iran Ceasefire by April 30
Thesis: Market underprices ceasefire probability at 56%. Our fair value model: 65-70%. Three catalysts: Trump signaled 'pretty quickly', Iran CIA back-channel confirmed by NYT, and oil crashed 10%+ forcing both sides to the table. Historical precedent: 2025 ceasefire in 12 days. April 30 gives 61 days of runway.
Iran Regime Falls by June 30
Thesis: Institutional continuity thesis — Mojtaba Khamenei succession stabilizes. Reversed from YES to NO.
Crude Oil Above $110 in March
Thesis: Hormuz closed at 97.2¢, $100 at 82.5¢. Hot CPI reignites oil. Thesis: geopolitical supply shock + energy inflation.
Michael B. Jordan Best Actor
Thesis: SAG Award winner → Oscar ~75% historical. Gold Derby 57% consensus. Spread widening vs Chalamet. Uncorrelated to macro.
Bitcoin Above $75,000 in March
Thesis: BTC sitting at ~$69-70K after bouncing off $68K support. Already touched $74.5K earlier this week. War uncertainty drives crypto as hedge. Strait of Hormuz closure spiking oil = inflation expectations rising. At 67¢ getting 3:2 odds on something that already nearly happened.
Closed Positions (9)
| Market | Side | Entry | Close | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Supreme Leader: Position Abolished | YES | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.0% |
| Iranian Regime Falls by June 30 | YES | 0.54 | 0.32 | -40.7% |
| Oil Above $85 by March 7 | YES | 0.45 | 1.00 | +122.2% |
| Trump Tariffs on Canada by March 4 | YES | 0.72 | 1.00 | +38.9% |
| US Ground Troops in Iran by June | YES | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.0% |
| ETH Above $3,500 in February | YES | 0.55 | 1.00 | +81.8% |
| Solana Above $200 in February | YES | 0.40 | 0.22 | -45.0% |
| Biden Resignation by March 1 | YES | 0.08 | 0.00 | — |
| Fed Emergency Rate Cut February | YES | 0.05 | 0.00 | — |
How We Trade
Max 10% per position. Total portfolio exposure capped at 50%. We keep dry powder for opportunities.
★★★★★ = max conviction, largest size. ★★★ = moderate, smaller size. We never trade below ★★★.
Every entry, exit, and P&L is logged here in real-time. No paper trading. No hindsight edits. Wallet is verifiable on-chain.
This is not financial advice. Prediction markets carry significant risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. PolyEdge positions are for informational and educational purposes. Trade responsibly.