Polling Aggregation Model
Weighted poll average vs. Polymarket prices — finding mispricings in political markets
Races Tracked
10
Edge Opportunities
0
Avg |Edge|
0.0%
Total Polls
0
⚙
Model Methodology
Weights: Recency (exp decay, 14d half-life) × Pollster Rating (FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin grades) × Sample Size (log-scaled) × Methodology (LV:1.00 / RV:0.75 / A:0.50). Margin→Probability via normal CDF (σ=6.5). Sources: RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, Silver Bulletin, major pollsters.
All Races
| Race | Leader | Margin | Model Prob | Polymarket | Edge | Signal | Conf | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 Georgia Senate GA | N/A | +0.0 | — | 58.0% | 0.0% | low | 0 | |
2026 Michigan Senate MI | N/A | +0.0 | — | 62.0% | 0.0% | low | 0 | |
2026 New Hampshire Senate NH | N/A | +0.0 | — | 72.0% | 0.0% | low | 0 | |
2026 North Carolina Senate NC | N/A | +0.0 | — | 55.0% | 0.0% | low | 0 | |
2026 Pennsylvania Senate PA | N/A | +0.0 | — | 48.0% | 0.0% | low | 0 | |
2028 Presidential Election | N/A | +0.0 | — | 52.0% | 0.0% | low | 0 | |
2026 Arizona Senate AZ | N/A | +0.0 | — | 65.0% | 0.0% | low | 0 | |
2026 Wisconsin Senate WI | N/A | +0.0 | — | 60.0% | 0.0% | low | 0 | |
Trump Approval Rating > 45% | N/A | +0.0 | — | 40.0% | 0.0% | low | 0 | |
2026 Senate Control | N/A | +0.0 | — | 55.0% | 0.0% | low | 0 |
Race Details
2026 Georgia Senate
Edge: 0.0%Jon Ossoff (D)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
Herschel Walker Jr (R)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
2026 Michigan Senate
Edge: 0.0%Gary Peters (D)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
Mike Rogers (R)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
2026 New Hampshire Senate
Edge: 0.0%Maggie Hassan (D)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
Don Bolduc (R)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
2026 North Carolina Senate
Edge: 0.0%Cheri Beasley (D)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
Ted Budd (R)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
2026 Pennsylvania Senate
Edge: 0.0%John Fetterman (D)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
Dave McCormick (R)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
2028 Presidential Election
Edge: 0.0%Democratic Nominee (D)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
Republican Nominee (R)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
2026 Arizona Senate
Edge: 0.0%Ruben Gallego (D)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
Kari Lake (R)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
2026 Wisconsin Senate
Edge: 0.0%Tammy Baldwin (D)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
Eric Hovde (R)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
Trump Approval Rating > 45%
Edge: 0.0%Above 45% (R)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
Below 45% (D)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
2026 Senate Control
Edge: 0.0%Republican Control (R)Win: 0.0%
0.0%
Democratic Control (D)Win: 0.0%
0.0%