PolyEdge Daily #7 — March 12, 2026

Post-CPI Fallout + New Trade Setup Edition

GM. It's Thursday. The CPI dust has settled. But a new number just dropped — PPI printed +0.5% MoM this morning, well above the +0.3% consensus. Energy PPI spiked +3.7%.

Remember our "hot CPI" thesis from Newsletter #5? The one where we said energy pass-through from Hormuz would spike inflation? We were right on the thesis. Wrong on the timing. The February CPI was too early to capture it. But today's PPI just confirmed the pipeline pressure is REAL — and it's coming for March CPI.

Meanwhile: Oil is ripping. Our Oscar trade just got complicated. And BTC is testing our stop loss. Let's go through everything.

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🔥 1. CPI Aftermath — How Markets Settled + PPI Bombshell

OVERNIGHT SETTLEMENT

After yesterday's inline CPI print (+0.3% MoM / 2.5% YoY), markets spent the overnight session digesting:

• 📈 S&P 500 futures: +0.4% overnight. Risk-on tone. "No hot CPI" = relief.
• 🛢️ WTI Crude: Pushed through $96 overnight, now trading ~$97. Hormuz supply squeeze intensifying.
• ₿ Bitcoin: Faded from $69K post-CPI rally back to ~$67.5K. Relief was short-lived.
• 💵 DXY (Dollar): Flat. Inline CPI = no strong directional signal.

THE PPI BOMBSHELL (8:30 AM TODAY)

Why This Matters: PPI is a leading indicator — it measures what producers pay, which flows through to what consumers pay 4-6 weeks later. The +3.7% energy PPI is the Hormuz pass-through we predicted for February CPI but arrived too early. This is the strongest signal yet that March CPI will be significantly hotter than February.

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💰 2. Full Portfolio Update — All Positions with Live Prices

📈 Weighted Portfolio P&L: +2.8% (from -0.3% yesterday — best day since launch!)

Active Positions (March 12, Post-PPI)

• 🚀 Oil $110 — STAR PERFORMER: +24.1% from entry. The hot PPI sent oil through $97.
• ⚠️ MBJ Oscar — PULLED BACK: Dipped from 50¢ to 47.5¢. Oscar final ballots were due today.
• 🔻 BTC $75K — APPROACHING STOP: Down to 43¢, dangerously close to our 38¢ stop.

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🎯 4. New Trade Recommendations — Post-CPI + Post-PPI Setups

NEW TRADE IDEAS

1. Oil $120 March YES — BUY @ 53¢ ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• WTI at $97, Hormuz locked shut (97.25¢). $110 at 69.5¢ means market sees $110 as likely. Target: 70-75¢.

2. March CPI > 3.0% — Early Positioning (~30¢) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Feb CPI captured only 24 hours of Hormuz. PPI at +0.5% (energy +3.7%) is the pipeline preview.

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🎬 5. Oscar Countdown — 3 Days to Ceremony

Best Actor — Current Polymarket Prices HOLD. If Jordan wins: 47.5¢ → 100¢ = +111% from current, +125% from entry.

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⚡ Bottom Line

PPI just confirmed what we've been saying since Newsletter #4: the Hormuz energy shock is real, it's flowing through the pipeline, and it's going to hit consumer prices hard. We were one month early on the CPI call — but today's PPI data proves the thesis is alive.

The next 6 days determine our entire Week 1 track record. Two positions resolve. The market will tell us if we were right or wrong — and unlike most newsletters, we'll show you the receipts either way.

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That's it for Day 7. We don't predict the future — we find where the market is wrong. And when WE'RE wrong, we tell you first. — PolyEdge