PolyEdge Daily #6 — March 11, 2026
CPI DAY. The Print Is In. Here's What We're Trading.
February CPI just dropped. The market is moving. Here's our real-time analysis and the trades we're executing right now.
1. The Number
February CPI came in at +0.3% MoM, 2.5% YoY headline. Core at 2.6% YoY. Basically inline with consensus. The energy sub-index showed early signs of the oil shock but the full Hormuz impact hasn't hit yet — that's a March/April story.
2. Market Reaction — The 30-Minute Window
Rate markets barely moved — Fed No Change steady at 99.2¢. June rate cut held at 79¢ (dipped to 76¢ briefly, then recovered). The big move: Oil $110 March jumped from 59¢ to 63¢ as inline CPI removed the demand destruction narrative. Pure supply shock now.
3. Trades Executed Today
We added to Oil $110 YES on the post-CPI dip. The inline number means the Fed won't intervene on energy prices — oil is going to be driven purely by Hormuz supply disruption. Also trimmed BTC exposure at 46¢ (partial exit, still holding small position).
4. Updated Portfolio P&L
| Position | Entry | Current | P&L |
|---|
| Fed March No Change YES | 98¢ | 99.2¢ | +1.2% |
| Oil $110 March YES | 56¢ | 63¢ | +12.5% |
| MBJ Best Actor YES | 44.5¢ | 50¢ | +12.4% |
| Iran Regime NO | 67.5¢ | 70¢ | +3.7% |
| BTC $75K March YES | 67¢ | 46¢ | -31.3% |
Weighted portfolio P&L: -3.2%. Three winners, one loser (BTC), one near-certainty (Fed).
5. Spicy Take
Inline CPI is actually the most bullish scenario for oil longs. Hot CPI would have triggered demand destruction fears. Cool CPI would have been deflationary. But inline? It means the economy is absorbing the energy shock without breaking. And that means oil supply disruption is the only story — no Fed rescue, no recession offset. Oil to $110 is now a pure supply-demand play, and Hormuz isn't reopening anytime soon.