PolyEdge Blog
Trading guides, research, and data-driven analysis for Polymarket and prediction markets.
The Strait Is Closed. The Market Says 60/40. We Say 75/25.
TRADE SIGNAL: BUY Crude Oil $100 YES at 60¢. Fair value 72-78%. Hormuz is closed, 20% of global oil is cut off, WTI already hit $119. The pullback was a false government claim. Same mispricing framework as Hungary — different market.
Read article →April 2026 Trade Alerts — 3 Polymarket Signals for the Next Cycle
3 actionable trade alerts for April: Fed No Change (86¢, ★★★★★), Hungary Election (62¢, ★★★★), Iran Regime NO (86¢, ★★★★★). Combined edge: +6-10¢ per contract. Full entry thesis, pricing, risk notes, and timing guidance.
Read article →New Fed Chair. First Meeting. $123 Oil. The Easiest April Trade.
TRADE SIGNAL: BUY Fed April No Change at 86¢. Fair value 93-96%. Warsh won't cut at his first FOMC meeting with oil at $123 and CPI at 2.9%. Full thesis with entry, target, stop loss, and catalyst timeline.
Read article →Hungary 33-Day Countdown: Why We're Holding Magyar (and Whether to Add)
SUBSCRIBER DEEP DIVE: Magyar at 62¢. Independent polls show +11 to +20 while government pollsters show Orbán ahead. The 'MBJ Pattern' returns. Full sizing guide and polling breakdown.
Read article →Regimes Don't Fall in 51 Days From Airstrikes Alone.
TRADE SIGNAL: BUY Iran Regime NO at 86¢. Fair value 92-95%. No historical precedent for airstrikes causing regime fall. The IRGC is intact, succession is proceeding. Full thesis inside.
Read article →Hungary Election 2026: Polymarket Odds, Polling Deep Dive & Where the Smart Money Is Moving
Magyar at 63¢. Orbán at 37¢. $29M in volume. The biggest polling divergence in European prediction market history — independent polls show Magyar +20 while government pollsters show Orbán ahead. Full analysis: electoral system gerrymandering, 5 key catalysts, fair value model, and 4 specific trade ideas with entries.
Read article →Hungary 2026 Election — The Polymarket Trader's Complete Guide
Independent polls: Magyar +7. Government polls: Orbán +25. A 32-point gap explained. Full probability model, scenario matrix, electoral math, and how we're trading it. Updated for April 12 election day.
Read article →5 Days Until Hungary Votes. The Polls Diverge by 30 Points. Here's What the Data Says.
Government pollsters say Orbán +14. Independent pollsters say Magyar +5. A 30-point gap — one of the largest in modern European polling history. Full polling data, trading thesis, and CPI week preview.
Read article →Two Events. Two Positions. One Week. Here's How We're Playing CPI and Hungary.
March CPI on Friday tests our inflation thesis (42¢→61¢, +45.2%). Hungary election on Sunday tests our political model. Scenario matrices for both, full positioning guide, and April trade ideas.
Read article →We Published Every Loss. 0/3 on Crypto. -100% on Oil $150. Here's Our Full March Scorecard.
20 trades. 7 wins. 3 losses. $100 → $214.60. The most transparent prediction market track record — including the 0/3 crypto disaster and the -100% Oil $150 tail bet. Full March review.
Read article →Today's Jobs Report Is the Recession Test. Here's Our Scenario Matrix for Every Outcome.
NFP Day analysis — scenario matrix for every jobs report outcome. New Iran ceasefire trade at 56¢. 6 open positions. $100 → $214.60 in March. Brand-new April trade thesis.
Read article →Everyone's Watching Bombs. We're Watching Back-Channels.
NEW TRADE SIGNAL: BUY Iran Ceasefire YES at 56¢. Fair value 65-70%. Oil crashed 10%, Trump said 'pretty quickly', CIA back-channel confirmed. Full thesis with entry price, target, stop loss, and catalyst timeline.
Read article →March 2026 Polymarket Results: $100 to $214 in 26 Days — Full Transparency Report
20 trades, 70% win rate on resolved positions, +114.6% model return. Every entry, every exit, every lesson — including our 0-for-3 crypto wipeout. The complete March recap.
Read article →Hungary Is the Most Mispriced Market on Polymarket. Here's the Data.
Hungary election deep dive: independent polls show Magyar +15 while government pollsters show Orbán ahead. PCE scenario analysis and March 31 resolution countdown with 7 contracts settling simultaneously.
Read article →16 Days. 5 Resolved Trades. $100 → $154.50. Here's Every Number.
Full portfolio transparency — the +124.7% winner AND the -89.6% disaster. 80% win rate. Compounding math. Report card with letter grades. Every loss shown.
Read article →Powell Said the Quiet Part Out Loud. Capital Is Rotating. We're Already There.
Post-FOMC Day 2: 2-year yield at 4.62%, oil through $123, and 'No Fed Cut 2026' up +33.3% in two days. The second wave of repricing is just beginning.
Read article →The Dot Plot Changed Everything. Here's What Reprices Next.
Post-FOMC aftermath: the dot plot killed rate cuts for 2026. 2-week milestone with 80% win rate, $100 → $154.50, and the capital rotation playbook.
Read article →PPI at 8:30. Dot Plot at 2:00. Powell at 2:30. This Is the Day We Built For.
FOMC Decision Day: minute-by-minute playbook for PPI, dot plot, and Powell presser. 4 specific Polymarket trades with entry prices. The thesis that the Powell Put is dead.
Read article →The Complete Polymarket Trading Strategy Guide — How to Actually Make Money on Prediction Markets
The definitive guide to profitable Polymarket trading. 5 core strategies, position sizing with Kelly Criterion, risk management rules, and real trade examples with +54.5% resolved P&L. From beginners to advanced traders.
Read article →How the March 2026 FOMC Decision Moved Prediction Markets — And What Smart Money Did Next
The March 18 FOMC meeting triggered a massive repricing across prediction markets. Here's the timeline, the contracts that moved, and the trades that printed +33.3% in 48 hours.
Read article →How to Find Edge on Polymarket — A Professional Trader's Guide
5 proven strategies for finding mispriced prediction markets. Fair value estimation, contrarian plays, catalyst-driven trading, on-chain whale data, and real trade examples with entry prices.
Read article →Polymarket vs Kalshi — Which Prediction Market Is Better for Traders?
A head-to-head comparison of the two biggest prediction markets. Liquidity, fees, market coverage, and which platform gives you the best edge.
Read article →I Analyzed 1,000 Polymarket Trades — Here's What Actually Works
$2.7M in volume. 340 wallets. 6 months of data. 73% of traders lose. Here are the 3 patterns that separate winners from losers on Polymarket.
Read article →PolyEdge Daily Newsletter
Our research comes from the same analysis behind our daily trading signals. Browse 32 issues of Polymarket trade ideas, market analysis, and real P&L — including our +114.6% model return.
“Layered oil thesis — Hormuz closure + second Fujairah incident drove WTI to $142.70...”
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