We Published Every Loss. 0/3 on Crypto. -100% on Oil $150. Here's Our Full March Scorecard.

Most trading newsletters only show you the winners. We published everything. The Oil $140 at +163.2%. And the BTC $75K at -89.6%. The 7 contracts that paid $1.00. And the 3 that went to zero. That's not a marketing failure — it's our biggest competitive advantage.

GM. It's Saturday, April 4. Week 5 is in the books. Time for radical transparency.

March was the best month in PolyEdge's (admittedly short) history. But the story isn't just the +114.6% return. It's the fact that you could verify every single number. Every entry published before the outcome. Every loss published same-day. No cherry-picking. No retroactive claims.

Here's the complete record — wins and losses, in full detail.

📊MARCH FINAL SCORECARD: $100 → $214.60 (+114.6%)

What We Got Right in March

1. Oil complex: 5/6 wins — Hormuz thesis executed perfectly. We identified the structural mispricing early, layered into it at multiple price levels, and let the fundamentals play out. Oil $130, Oil $130 Add, and Oil $140 all paid $1.00.
2. Oscar call: +124.7% — Pattern-matching model validated. We used SAG Award → Oscar correlation data to identify MBJ as underpriced. The market overweighted social media buzz. We weighted guild voting patterns. The data won.
3. Fed pivot (April Cut → No Cut 2026): Thesis flexibility saved capital. When the FOMC dot plot came in hawkish, we reversed within 24 hours — killing the Fed April Cut YES position and rotating into No Fed Cut 2026 YES. That position is now at +45.2%.
4. Transparency built trust — every loss published same-day. No retroactive edits. No deleted positions.

What We Got Wrong in March

1. Crypto: 0/3 wins — BTC $75K at -89.6%, ETH $2,200 at -100%, BTC $72K at -100%. We had the wrong macro call for crypto. In a higher-for-longer world with $123 oil, risk assets don't rally. We learned that lesson at full cost.
2. Gas $4.50: directionally right, timing wrong — AAA national average hit $4.31 vs. our $4.50 target. We were right about the direction but wrong about the magnitude within the timeframe. Missed by 19 cents.
3. Initial Iran YES: Resolution criteria misread. Reversed in 24 hours. The position was sized small enough that the loss was manageable, but the error was a process failure — we should have read the resolution criteria more carefully before entering.
4. Oil $150 tail bet: Bridge too far. Oil peaked at $142.70. We needed $150. Missed by $7.30 on a tail bet we sized at 3% of capital. The risk/reward was correct (12¢ entry for $1.00 payout). The outcome was wrong.

📈WEEK 5 P&L — Post-NFP Status

Active Positions (6 Open Entering April)

NFP post-mortem and updated P&L will be published in the next newsletter with actual data.

🔮WEEK AHEAD — April 7-12

Two major catalysts in 8 days. CPI on Thursday tells us if inflation is cooling enough for the Fed to even consider adjusting (spoiler: it's not). Hungary on Sunday resolves our Magyar PM position. April is delivering exactly what we predicted — a target-rich environment.

🌶️SPICY TAKE

We showed you our 0/3 crypto record. We published the Oil $150 miss. We published the Gas $4.50 near-miss. That's not marketing failure — it's our biggest competitive advantage.

In a world of screenshot-their-winners-only trading influencers, our track record page shows everything. That's why 70% win rate means something. Because you can see the 30% too.

Anyone can show you a +163% winner. We show you the -89.6% loser sitting right next to it. Same newsletter. Same methodology. Same transparency.

Total track record: 21 trades. Full transparency. $100 → $214.60.