16 Days. 5 Resolved Trades. $100 → $154.50. Here's Every Number.
PolyEdge Daily #16 — Saturday, March 21, 2026 | Week 3 P&L Review / Full Portfolio Transparency
GM. Saturday. Week 3 is in the books. Today we do something most newsletters won't: open the entire portfolio, show every trade — the +124.7% winner AND the -89.6% disaster — and let the math speak.
No cherry-picking. No "if you'd followed our best trade" nonsense. The full tape. Every entry. Every exit. Every unrealized position.
Because if you can't show your losses, your wins don't mean anything.
🏆Resolved Trades — The Full Tape
| Trade | Entry | Exit | P&L | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil $110 March YES | 56¢ | $1.00 | +78.6% | ✅ Won |
| MBJ Best Actor YES | 44.5¢ | $1.00 | +124.7% | ✅ Won |
| Oil $120 March YES | 74¢ | $1.00 | +35.1% | ✅ Won |
| Fed Hold March YES | 98¢ | $1.00 | +2.0% | ✅ Won |
| Iran Regime YES | 54¢ | 32.5¢ | -39.8% | ❌ Lost |
Win rate: 80%. Weighted P&L: +54.5%. $100 → $154.50 in 16 days.
S&P 500 YTD -3.2%. Bitcoin YTD -8.7%. PolyEdge: +54.5%.
💀The Losses — Full Transparency
We don't hide losses. Here's every position that's underwater or was exited at a loss.
Exited at a loss
- Fed Rate Cut June YES: 28¢ → 15¢ (-46.4%) — dot plot killed it
- Fed April Cut YES: 12¢ → 4¢ (-66.7%) — dead on arrival post-FOMC
Still underwater
- BTC $75K March: 67¢ → 7¢ (-89.6%) — effectively dead
- BTC $72K March: 38¢ → 24¢ (-36.8%) — impaired
- Gas $4.50 March: 64¢ → 40¢ (-37.5%) — NatGas decoupled from oil
- ETH $2,200 March: 52¢ → 38¢ (-26.9%) — hawkish Fed headwind
Even with every loss fully accounted for, the portfolio is net positive. Winners sized larger than losers (Kelly Criterion). Losers cut when thesis breaks. The math works.
📈The Compounding Math
| Starting Capital | $100.00 |
| After Oil $110 (+78.6%) | $115.72 |
| After MBJ Best Actor (+124.7%) | $140.50 |
| After Oil $120 (+31.1%) | $149.22 |
| After Fed Hold (+2.0%) | $150.19 |
| After Iran Regime (-39.8%) | $154.50 |
🔥Active Positions — The Leaders
| Trade | Entry | Current | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil $140 YES | 38¢ | 52¢ | +36.8% |
| No Fed Cut 2026 YES | 42¢ | 56¢ | +33.3% |
| Oil $150 YES | 24¢ | 32¢ | +33.3% |
| Oil $130 YES | 64¢ | 82¢ | +28.1% |
| Iran Regime NO | 67.5¢ | 72¢ | +6.7% |
🎯Report Card — 16-Day Grades
Oil Thesis
2/2 resolved at $1.00, 3 active all green, dip held correctly
Macro/Fed
Fed Hold resolved ✅, "No Cut 2026" +33.3%, but Fed Cut bets were wrong
Crypto
BTC $75K worst trade ever. Thesis was sound, sizing too aggressive
Geopolitics
Iran Regime YES wrong (-39.8%), but flipped to NO (+6.7%)
Culture/Sports
MBJ Best Actor = best single trade +124.7%
Risk Management
Cut losers when thesis broke. BTC $75K sizing was the miss
📅Next Week: The PCE Gauntlet
The week in one number: February PCE inflation drops Friday March 27 at 8:30 AM ET.
| Scenario | Core PCE | Prob. | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot | >2.9% | 40% | 🔥 No Cut 2026 → 65¢+, recession → 40¢+ |
| Warm | 2.7-2.9% | 35% | Neutral — confirms status quo |
| Cool | <2.7% | 20% | Mixed — rate bets revive, oil holds |
| Cold | <2.5% | 5% | Full reassessment |
16 days. $100 → $154.50. Every trade, every loss, every number shown. The portfolio isn't perfect. But it's honest. And honest portfolios compound.