Data Fusion Engine

Aggregated edge signals from polling models, cross-platform arbitrage, macro data correlations, and expert consensus vs Polymarket.

Report Date

2026-08-29

Markets Analyzed

Edge Opportunities

Arbitrage Opps

Avg |Edge|

4.4%

Max |Edge|

7.0%

Macro Impacts

Edge Opportunities

13 signals across all engines

Market	Cat	Poly	Model	Edge	Conf	Robust	Signal	Size
2026 Best Actor Oscar - Adrien Brody Metacritic Predictions	★ awards	48¢	55¢	+7.0%	low	—	BUY YES (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
2026 Best Picture Oscar - The Brutalist Gold Derby	★ awards	35¢	42¢	+7.0%	low	—	BUY YES (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
2026 Best Director Oscar - Brady Corbet Gold Derby	★ awards	32¢	38¢	+6.0%	low	—	BUY YES (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
Bitcoin > $150k by Dec 2026 Deribit Options Market	◆ crypto	25¢	20¢	-5.0%	low	—	BUY NO (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
2026 Best Actress Oscar - Demi Moore Gold Derby	★ awards	40¢	45¢	+5.0%	low	—	BUY YES (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
2028 Presidential Election - Republican Wins Aggregate Expert Consensus	● political	52¢	48¢	-4.0%	low	—	BUY NO (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
Ethereum > $10k by Dec 2026 Deribit Options Market	◆ crypto	12¢	8¢	-4.0%	low	—	BUY NO (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
2026 Champions League Winner - Manchester City FiveThirtyEight SPI	⚽ sports	22¢	18¢	-4.0%	low	—	BUY NO (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
2026 Senate Control - Republican Silver Bulletin Model	● political	55¢	52¢	-3.0%	low	—	BUY NO (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
2026 Arizona Senate - Gallego Wins FiveThirtyEight Lite Model	● political	65¢	68¢	+3.0%	low	—	BUY YES (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
Super Bowl LXI Winner - Kansas City Chiefs FiveThirtyEight Elo Model	⚽ sports	18¢	15¢	-3.0%	low	—	BUY NO (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
2026 NBA Champion - Boston Celtics ESPN BPI Model	⚽ sports	19¢	22¢	+3.0%	low	—	BUY YES (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)
Bitcoin > $200k by Dec 2027 Aggregate Model (PlanB S2F + Options)	◆ crypto	18¢	15¢	-3.0%	low	—	BUY NO (small)	small (0.5-1% bankroll)

Cross-Platform Arbitrage

13 opportunities across 13 markets — threshold: 3%

Market	Poly	PredictIt	Kalshi	Betfair	Smarkets	Spread	Net Arb
Bitcoin > $150k by Dec 2026 crypto	25¢	22¢	28¢	24¢	26¢	6.0%	3.8%
Fed Cuts Rates Before July 2026 macro	35¢	32¢	38¢	34¢	36¢	6.0%	2.8%
2026 Best Picture Oscar awards	35¢	—	—	32¢	38¢	6.0%	3.2%
2026 Georgia Senate - Ossoff Wins political	58¢	54¢	56¢	60¢	59¢	6.0%	-1.4%
2026 Pennsylvania Senate - Fetterman Wins political	48¢	52¢	47¢	50¢	49¢	5.0%	0.2%
2026 Arizona Senate - Gallego Wins political	65¢	62¢	64¢	67¢	66¢	5.0%	-2.8%
US Recession by End of 2026 macro	22¢	25¢	20¢	23¢	21¢	5.0%	-2.5%
Ethereum > $10k by Dec 2026 crypto	12¢	10¢	15¢	11¢	13¢	5.0%	4.0%
CPI Below 3% by June 2026 macro	58¢	55¢	60¢	57¢	59¢	5.0%	-0.5%
2028 Presidential - Republican Nominee Wins political	52¢	55¢	51¢	53¢	54¢	4.0%	-0.5%
Trump Approval > 45% EOY 2026 political	40¢	38¢	42¢	39¢	41¢	4.0%	0.2%
2026 Senate Control - Republican political	55¢	58¢	54¢	56¢	57¢	4.0%	-0.2%
Super Bowl LXI Winner - Favorite sports	18¢	—	20¢	17¢	19¢	3.0%	2.1%

Polymarket: 0% feePredictIt: 10% profit + 5% withdrawal, $850 maxKalshi: 0% feeBetfair: 5% commissionSmarkets: 2% commission

Macro Data Integration

Economic indicators from FRED/BLS/BEA and their prediction market correlations

CPIAUCSL

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

3.1

Prev: 3.3-0.2%Surprise: -0.10

FRED/BLS · 2026-03-05

UNRATE

Unemployment Rate

4.2

Prev: 4.1+0.1%Surprise: +0.10

FRED/BLS · 2026-03-07

PAYEMS

Nonfarm Payrolls (thousands)

185

Prev: 216-14.4%Surprise: -15.00

FRED/BLS · 2026-03-07

GDP

GDP Growth Rate (annualized)

2.3

Prev: 2.8-0.5%Surprise: -0.20

FRED/BEA · 2026-02-27

UMCSENT

Consumer Sentiment (UMich)

67.8

Prev: 71.2-4.8%Surprise: -2.20

FRED/UMich · 2026-03-01

FEDFUNDS

Federal Funds Rate

4.5

Prev: 4.50.0%Surprise: 0.00

FRED/FOMC · 2026-02-28

T10Y2Y

10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

0.15

Prev: 0.08+87.5%Surprise: +0.05

FRED/Treasury · 2026-03-07

DCOILWTICO

WTI Crude Oil Price

72.5

Prev: 74.2-2.3%

FRED/EIA · 2026-03-07

VIXCLS

VIX Volatility Index

18.5

Prev: 16.2+14.2%

FRED/CBOE · 2026-03-07

▼10 indicator-market correlations — click to expand

Indicator	Market	Corr	R²	Beta	Interpretation
CPI	Fed Cuts Rates Before July 2026	-0.72	0.52	-0.1800	Higher CPI → lower probability of rate cuts. A 0.1% CPI surprise to upside moves Fed cut markets -1.8%.
CPI	CPI Below 3% by June 2026	-0.85	0.72	-0.2500	Directly correlated. A 0.1% CPI surprise to downside moves CPI target market +2.5%.
CPI	Trump Approval > 45%	-0.35	0.12	-0.0600	Weak negative correlation. Higher inflation slightly reduces incumbent approval markets.
Unemployment Rate	US Recession by End of 2026	+0.68	0.46	+0.1500	Higher unemployment → higher recession probability. A 0.1% UNRATE surprise moves recession market +1.5%.
Nonfarm Payrolls	Fed Cuts Rates Before July 2026	-0.55	0.30	+0.0001	Weaker jobs → higher probability of rate cuts. Every 10K jobs miss from consensus moves Fed cut market +0.1%.
Unemployment Rate	2026 Senate Control - Republican	+0.42	0.18	+0.0800	Higher unemployment favors opposition party. 0.1% UNRATE rise moves GOP Senate control market +0.8%.
GDP Growth	US Recession by End of 2026	-0.78	0.61	-0.0800	Lower GDP → higher recession probability. A 0.5% GDP miss moves recession market +4%.
GDP Growth	2028 Presidential - Republican Nominee Wins	-0.32	0.10	-0.0400	Weaker economy slightly favors opposition presidential candidate.
Consumer Sentiment	Trump Approval > 45%	+0.55	0.30	+0.0040	Higher consumer sentiment → higher incumbent approval. 1-point sentiment rise moves approval market +0.4%.
VIX	Bitcoin > $150k by Dec 2026	-0.45	0.20	-0.0030	Higher VIX (fear) → lower crypto market confidence. 1-point VIX rise moves BTC target market -0.3%.

Live Macro Impact Signals

▲Consumer Price Index (CPI)3.1 (surprise: -0.10)

Fed Cuts Rates Before July 2026

35¢ → 37¢+1.8%

CPI Below 3% by June 2026

58¢ → 61¢+2.5%

Trump Approval > 45%

40¢ → 41¢+0.6%

▲Unemployment Rate4.2 (surprise: +0.10)

US Recession by End of 2026

22¢ → 24¢+1.5%

2026 Senate Control - Republican

55¢ → 56¢+0.8%

▲GDP Growth Rate (annualized)2.3 (surprise: -0.20)

US Recession by End of 2026

22¢ → 24¢+1.6%

2028 Presidential - Republican Nominee Wins

52¢ → 53¢+0.8%

▲Consumer Sentiment (UMich)67.8 (surprise: -2.20)

Trump Approval > 45%

40¢ → 39¢-0.9%

Expert Consensus vs Market

16 markets across awards, sports, crypto, and political models

★awards(4)

Market	Sources	Consensus	Polymarket	Edge
2026 Best Actor Oscar - Adrien Brody Metacritic Predictions	1	55.0%	48.0%	+7.0%
2026 Best Picture Oscar - The Brutalist Gold Derby	1	42.0%	35.0%	+7.0%
2026 Best Director Oscar - Brady Corbet Gold Derby	1	38.0%	32.0%	+6.0%
2026 Best Actress Oscar - Demi Moore Gold Derby	1	45.0%	40.0%	+5.0%

⚽sports(4)

Market	Sources	Consensus	Polymarket	Edge
2026 Champions League Winner - Manchester City FiveThirtyEight SPI	1	18.0%	22.0%	-4.0%
Super Bowl LXI Winner - Kansas City Chiefs FiveThirtyEight Elo Model	1	15.0%	18.0%	-3.0%
2026 NBA Champion - Boston Celtics ESPN BPI Model	1	22.0%	19.0%	+3.0%
2026 World Series Winner - Los Angeles Dodgers FanGraphs Projections	1	16.0%	14.0%	+2.0%

◆crypto(3)

Market	Sources	Consensus	Polymarket	Edge
Bitcoin > $150k by Dec 2026 Deribit Options Market	1	20.0%	25.0%	-5.0%
Ethereum > $10k by Dec 2026 Deribit Options Market	1	8.0%	12.0%	-4.0%
Bitcoin > $200k by Dec 2027 Aggregate Model (PlanB S2F + Options)	1	15.0%	18.0%	-3.0%

●political(5)

Market	Sources	Consensus	Polymarket	Edge
2028 Presidential Election - Republican Wins Aggregate Expert Consensus	1	48.0%	52.0%	-4.0%
2026 Senate Control - Republican Silver Bulletin Model	1	52.0%	55.0%	-3.0%
2026 Arizona Senate - Gallego Wins FiveThirtyEight Lite Model	1	68.0%	65.0%	+3.0%
2026 Georgia Senate - Ossoff Wins Cook Political Report	1	55.0%	58.0%	-3.0%
2026 Pennsylvania Senate - Fetterman Wins Silver Bulletin Model	1	50.0%	48.0%	+2.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

What if polls are off by ±2% or ±4%? Scenario-based edge robustness testing.

2026 Georgia Senate

Base: 50.0%|Poly: 58.0%|Edge: -8.0%

FRAGILE

Polls +4% (strong D overperformance)

26.9%-31.1%

Polls +2% (mild D overperformance)

37.9%-20.1%

Base case

50.0%-8.0%

Polls -2% (mild R overperformance)

62.1%+4.1%

Polls -4% (strong R overperformance)

73.1%+15.1%

90% CI: [12.7% – 87.3%]BUY NO (reduced size) — Large edge but not robust to all poll shifts

2026 Michigan Senate

Base: 50.0%|Poly: 62.0%|Edge: -12.0%

FRAGILE

Polls +4% (strong D overperformance)

26.9%-35.1%

Polls +2% (mild D overperformance)

37.9%-24.1%

Base case

50.0%-12.0%

Polls -2% (mild R overperformance)

62.1%+0.1%

Polls -4% (strong R overperformance)

73.1%+11.1%

90% CI: [12.7% – 87.3%]BUY NO (reduced size) — Large edge but not robust to all poll shifts

2026 New Hampshire Senate

Base: 50.0%|Poly: 72.0%|Edge: -22.0%

FRAGILE

Polls +4% (strong D overperformance)

26.9%-45.1%

Polls +2% (mild D overperformance)

37.9%-34.1%

Base case

50.0%-22.0%

Polls -2% (mild R overperformance)

62.1%-9.9%

Polls -4% (strong R overperformance)

73.1%+1.1%

90% CI: [12.7% – 87.3%]BUY NO (reduced size) — Large edge but not robust to all poll shifts

2026 North Carolina Senate

Base: 50.0%|Poly: 55.0%|Edge: -5.0%

FRAGILE

Polls +4% (strong D overperformance)

26.9%-28.1%

Polls +2% (mild D overperformance)

37.9%-17.1%

Base case

50.0%-5.0%

Polls -2% (mild R overperformance)

62.1%+7.1%

Polls -4% (strong R overperformance)

73.1%+18.1%

90% CI: [12.7% – 87.3%]SMALL POSITION — Edge present but uncertain. Watch for more data.

2026 Pennsylvania Senate

Base: 50.0%|Poly: 48.0%|Edge: +2.0%

FRAGILE

Polls +4% (strong D overperformance)

26.9%-21.1%

Polls +2% (mild D overperformance)

37.9%-10.1%

Base case

50.0%+2.0%

Polls -2% (mild R overperformance)

62.1%+14.1%

Polls -4% (strong R overperformance)

73.1%+25.1%

90% CI: [12.7% – 87.3%]NO TRADE — Insufficient edge or too much uncertainty

2028 Presidential Election

Base: 50.0%|Poly: 52.0%|Edge: -2.0%

FRAGILE

Polls +4% (strong D overperformance)

26.9%-25.1%

Polls +2% (mild D overperformance)

37.9%-14.1%

Base case

50.0%-2.0%

Polls -2% (mild R overperformance)

62.1%+10.1%

Polls -4% (strong R overperformance)

73.1%+21.1%

90% CI: [18.8% – 81.2%]NO TRADE — Insufficient edge or too much uncertainty

2026 Arizona Senate

Base: 50.0%|Poly: 65.0%|Edge: -15.0%

FRAGILE

Polls +4% (strong D overperformance)

26.9%-38.1%

Polls +2% (mild D overperformance)

37.9%-27.1%

Base case

50.0%-15.0%

Polls -2% (mild R overperformance)

62.1%-2.9%

Polls -4% (strong R overperformance)

73.1%+8.1%

90% CI: [12.7% – 87.3%]BUY NO (reduced size) — Large edge but not robust to all poll shifts

2026 Wisconsin Senate

Base: 50.0%|Poly: 60.0%|Edge: -10.0%

FRAGILE

Polls +4% (strong D overperformance)

26.9%-33.1%

Polls +2% (mild D overperformance)

37.9%-22.1%

Base case

50.0%-10.0%

Polls -2% (mild R overperformance)

62.1%+2.1%

Polls -4% (strong R overperformance)

73.1%+13.1%

90% CI: [12.7% – 87.3%]BUY NO (reduced size) — Large edge but not robust to all poll shifts

Trump Approval Rating > 45%

Base: 50.0%|Poly: 40.0%|Edge: +10.0%

FRAGILE

Polls +4% (strong D overperformance)

26.9%-13.1%

Polls +2% (mild D overperformance)

37.9%-2.1%

Base case

50.0%+10.0%

Polls -2% (mild R overperformance)

62.1%+22.1%

Polls -4% (strong R overperformance)

73.1%+33.1%

90% CI: [10.3% – 89.7%]BUY YES (reduced size) — Large edge but not robust to all poll shifts

2026 Senate Control

Base: 50.0%|Poly: 55.0%|Edge: -5.0%

FRAGILE

Polls +4% (strong D overperformance)

26.9%-28.1%

Polls +2% (mild D overperformance)

37.9%-17.1%

Base case

50.0%-5.0%

Polls -2% (mild R overperformance)

62.1%+7.1%

Polls -4% (strong R overperformance)

73.1%+18.1%

90% CI: [10.3% – 89.7%]SMALL POSITION — Edge present but uncertain. Watch for more data.

Polling Model

Exponential decay (14d half-life), pollster quality (538 grades), sample size (log-scaled), methodology (LV>RV>A). Margin→probability via normal CDF (sigma=6.5).

Arbitrage

Cross-platform price comparison. Accounts for platform-specific fees and position limits. Threshold: 3% gross spread.

Macro Data

FRED API indicators (CPI, UNRATE, PAYEMS, GDP, UMCSENT). Regression models built on historical surprise→market-move relationships.

Expert Consensus

Gold Derby (awards), 538/ESPN (sports), Deribit options IV (crypto), Silver Bulletin/Cook (political). Confidence-weighted averaging.

PolyEdge Data Fusion Engine v1.0 — Not financial advice. Probabilistic estimates carry inherent uncertainty.