PolyEdge Daily #2 — March 7, 2026
Market Pulse
Big moves overnight. Iran regime YES crashed from 54¢ to 32.5¢ as deeper research revealed the strict resolution criteria. We took the L (-39.8%) and reversed to NO. Meanwhile, oil is ripping — Brent at $92 with Hormuz closure tightening supply.
Today's Plays
Play #1: Oil $110 March — BUY YES at 56¢ ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. 20% of global oil supply is offline. Brent crude surged from $65 to $91 in one week. $110 is only 21% above current spot. At 56¢, you're getting nearly 2:1 on a structural supply shock with no resolution in sight.
Entry: 56¢ | Target: 75-85¢ | Stop: 40¢ | Size: 7%
Play #2: Michael B. Jordan Best Actor — BUY YES at 44.5¢ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Our highest-conviction trade of the week. Jordan won the SAG Award — there's a 75% historical correlation between SAG and Oscar Best Actor. Gold Derby experts have him at 57% vs. market at 44.5¢. Sinners has a record 16 nominations. Resolves March 15.
Entry: 44.5¢ | Target: 70-80¢ | Stop: 30¢ | Size: 7%
Play #3: Iran Regime NO — BUY NO at 67.5¢ ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Reversed from our Day 1 YES position. The resolution criteria require full dissolution of Supreme Leader office + Guardian Council + IRGC clerical control. No regime has been toppled by airstrikes alone in modern history. Assembly of Experts moving toward Mojtaba Khamenei succession. Institutional continuity = NO wins.
Entry: 67.5¢ | Target: 85-90¢ | Stop: 50¢ | Size: 7%
Open Positions Update
| Position | Entry | Current | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed March No Change YES | 98¢ | 99¢ | +1.0% |
| BTC $75K March YES | 67¢ | 52¢ | -22.4% |
| Iran Regime YES | 54¢ | 32.5¢ | -39.8% CLOSED |
| Oil $110 March YES | 56¢ | 56¢ | 0% NEW |
| MBJ Best Actor YES | 44.5¢ | 44.5¢ | 0% NEW |
| Iran Regime NO | 67.5¢ | 67.5¢ | 0% NEW |
Portfolio Weighted P&L: -4.2%. We ate the Iran loss publicly. No hiding, no deleting. The reversal to NO is the right move based on updated analysis.
Spicy Take
The Oscars prediction market is the most inefficient market on Polymarket right now. Why? Because crypto degens don't watch movies. The SAG-to-Oscar correlation is one of the most reliable statistical patterns in entertainment, and the market is completely ignoring it. At 44.5¢, Michael B. Jordan is basically free money.